Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.
Speaking to reporters after a recent cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Mark Carney told the assembled media that Canada’s old relationship with the United States, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation, is over.”
The newly elected leader went on to add that Canada would respond with retaliatory tariffs that will have “maximum impact” on the U.S. in the wake of the White House’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs April 2.
Carney, gripped in a hotly contested election battle, has already been forced to confront jarring tariffs imposed on all automobiles by a bellicose U.S. President Donald Trump.
Now, with a snap election less than a month away and tensions rapidly escalating between the once-close allies, Carney’s leadership and grip on power will be put to the test like never before.
In the aftermath of the auto tariff announcement, Trump and Carney held a phone call to discuss a range of issues. It was Carney’s first dialogue with the Commander-in-Chief since assuming power. Both leaders described the call as “productive” and constructive.
However, the still-escalating trade war continues unabated, as both nations move forward with mass import duties that are expected to mark enormous anxiety and uncertainty throughout the markets. Nevertheless, though he might try to redirect the campaign elsewhere, from now until the final votes are counted, Carney will have to contend with an ubiquitous Trump as he will likely dominate the electoral landscape.
‘More harm than good’
Trump’s threats of tariffs have done more harm than good on both sides of the border since he first announced plans to target Canada early in his tenure.
In typical Trump fashion, the twice-impeached president readily fomented disinformation about trade between the two countries to hide his ulterior motive—a hostile takeover of the land of maple syrup— underscored by incessant mocking and humiliation of then-prime minister, Justin Trudeau.
Now, it is Carney, who has entered the fray and must find a way to establish guardrails that protects Canada’s businesses, financial markets, and above all, its people from the fallout. More than simply responding in a way to placate voters, Carney is following through on actions that deliver as he describes, “maximum impact.”
The Liberal Party leader called the original Canada-U.S. Automotive Products Agreement signed in 1965 the most important deal in his lifetime; “That’s finished with these tariffs,” he said.
Denoting a huge break of economic integration that was until now, a hallmark of the robustness that characterized the relationship. Moreover, the former banking leader has already begun to position Ottawa away from Washington with an eye towards France and the United Kingdom; two nations the PM sees as more reliable.
Carney stated: “…that’s why I chose to go to France and the United Kingdom, two long-standing and reliable partners, friends and allies of Canada,” Carney said, referring to his first international trip as prime minister.
Talk and showmanship certainly go far in an election year yet, Carney must now show he can stand up to the unceasing threats to the nation’s sovereignty by the American authoritarian but also, he must swiftly and nimbly navigate Canada to stand alone if necessary. No doubt a tall task for any national leader considering the two countries have worked so closely and are categorically intertwined economically and militarily and have been for decades.
Still, Carney is preparing for a strategic break from the U.S. something even many European nations are loath to do even after unyielding takedowns by various members of the Trump administration. Speaking boldly, Carney also said, “I reject any attempts to weaken Canada, to wear us down, to break us so that America can own us.”
Now, if the PM wants to stay in power and finally put an end to the ongoing questions of his nation’s survival as an independent entity, he will have to demonstrate to Trump and the voters that he has an endgame that can win.
‘Carney recognizes what is at play’
Despite Trump’s surprising comments of civility and enmity in the aftermath of his phone call with the prime minister, foreign policy experts must in no way be deceived by the grand intent of the U.S. president, which is to make Canada an American state.
Like his predecessor, Trudeau, Carney recognizes what is at play and appears prepared to match wits with the superior power to maintain Canada’s independence.
In fact, the latest tracking shows that message might be breaking through. A three-day rolling sample ending March 30 has Mark Carney’s Liberals at 44 per cent, leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who are at 36 per cent. Compared to the previous day, the Liberals are up two points while the Conservative are down by one.
National elections undoubtedly shape and challenge the resolve of even the most agile and astute politicians. Walking the campaign tightrope day in and day out can push and pull elected officials in dizzying and untold ways both seen and unseen.
During war especially, the difficulties a national leader faces are only amplified. Trump has made his intentions for Canada clear and in just a matter of days, another economic attack will be directed squarely in Ottawa’s direction.
The next leader of the nation will not govern during peace but at a time of economic and financial war. Therefore, Carney’s next steps, in the wake of another trade offensive meant to debilitate the nation, must be soberly and deliberately crafted. The ultimate test he must surpass will not just determine success or failure at the ballot box; it could also very well decide the nation’s very existence.
