Could America actually take over Canada? It might fall apart first, essayist says

President Donald Trump speaks as Tulsi Gabbard is sworn in as the Director of National Intelligence in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon) (Alex Brandon/AP)

It’s unclear whether U.S. President Donald Trump is serious about annexing Canada, but essayist and cultural commentator Stephen Marche raises a different question: With the way things are going, does America really have it in them?

“Annexing a country is the work of the state, and they’re in the middle of breaking down their state,” Marche told CTV Your Morning in an interview Thursday.

“If a serious person were attempting to annex Greenland, Canada, the Panama Canal … and the Gaza Strip, the first step probably would not be disbanding the CIA.”

The opening weeks of Trump’s second presidential term have been marked by an alchemy of bold, expansionist threats against sovereignty abroad and aggressive cuts to his own federal government’s institutions.

To Marche, even if expanding American empire is what Trump wants, that’s not an effective mix for would-be conquerors.

“He’s actually weakened American power in a very pronounced way, exactly at the time [when] he’s making all these remarks,” he said. “He may well really mean them, but he certainly is not doing anything to make American power even close to approximate what would be required to do this.”

Manifest destiny, offensively

Since before his inauguration in January, Trump has refused to rule out an armed takeover of the Panama Canal, renewed past calls for the United States to buy Greenland from Denmark, and used the word “own” in describing his plan to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and convert the land into a real estate development.

The notion of incorporating Canada as the 51st state first emerged as an aside to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a diplomatic trip to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, and has since been a hallmark of his social media footprint throughout a burgeoning continental trade war.

What began as “musing,” "teasing" or a “joke” in the eyes of Canadian leaders has since soured into something that feels “concerning,” “offensive” and perhaps even sincere.

Trudeau recently described the 51st state threat as a “real thing” to business leaders, according to a CTV News source, even if members of cabinet have repeatedly stressed that such a thing will not come to pass.

Marche says Trump’s stance on Canada can be truly felt, even if it isn’t based in reality, likening it to the delusions of a paranoid mind.

“You’re dealing, here, with insanity,” he said.

Alternatively, assuming a maple-leaf state isn’t the ultimate goal, Marche notes that understanding Trump’s innermost desires could be helped by remembering who you’re talking about.

“What he wants is a lot of attention, right now, and for everyone to praise him, very grandly … I don’t really think there’s much more motive to that.”

Small government

As the Trump administration settles back into the West Wing, its domestic policy thus far has featured more cutting back than expanding out.

The White House has tried offering thousands of federal workers buyouts to shrink the public service and, for a brief episode, ordered a freeze on nearly all federal grants, loans and other financial aid before a judicial intervention restored the flow of funding.

Elon Musk, head of the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has called for the United States to “delete entire agencies” from the federal government, and Trump himself has said he plans to shutter the U.S. Department of Education as soon as possible.

“We’re dealing with something that has no consistency, [that] has no internal logic, is dissolving under the weight of its own madness, is doing things like destroying its own scientific community and its own education system,” Marche said.

“What this is, is a sign of American breakdown, and that’s the real risk for Canada, and that’s what we really need to prepare for.”

As institutional norms continue to shift south of the border, Marche points to improving the flow of business between Canadian provinces and seeking out new trade partners overseas as Canada’s most important next steps.

“Whatever is happening in the United States, we need to do that because that guarantees our security, and that guarantees our independence,” he said.

“It is priority one; all other priorities, rescinded.”

With files from CTV News’ Stephanie Ha and Ryan White, Reuters, The Canadian Press and The Associated Press