Will Ontario’s rare winter election affect voter turnout?

Signage from Elections Ontario, the non-partisan office of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario responsible for administering provincial elections, is seen at a polling station in Toronto, Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Giordano Ciampini (Giordano Ciampini/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Ontario voters are heading to the polls to cast their ballots this week in the provincial election, just as the city continues to clean up from a winter wallop that has left many streets slick and messy.

With weather less than ideal across the province, it remains to be seen whether Ontario’s first February election in more than 140 years yields a voter turnout as sloppy as the mucky streets.

“We’re working closely with Toronto municipal officials,” Greg Flood, manager for media and outreach at Elections Ontario told CP24 Tuesday when asked how the agency is factoring in the weather.

Flood pointed out that the agency is responsible for running polling stations in every city and rural community across the province.

“In most instances, we’re relying very closely on the municipalities to manage the local snow issues or anything like that, but right in front of our facilities staff will be there to make sure that as much as possible the area is cleared and that there’s access for people to get into the polling station on Election Day,” Flood said.

In an email, the City of Toronto said that ensuring access to voting places “is a priority” as crews work to clean up.

“Staff are now inspecting the areas around Election Day voting places and prioritizing them for clean-up,” Shane Gerard, a senior communications coordinator at the City of Toronto, said in an email.

“To ensure this work is done as quickly as possible, the city will be utilizing all crews available - which includes in-house road maintenance crews, winter maintenance contractors and Parks & Recreation staff - and will continue to monitor these areas to ensure they remain accessible through the voting period.”

Toronto has seen at least 71 centimetres of snow in February – more than all of last winter.

While the temperature has warmed up this week, conditions on many streets and sidewalks remain sloppy. Some active weather could compound those conditions Thursday. While Environment Canada is forecasting a high of 4 C for Election Day, there is also a chance of rain showers or flurries.

However conditions are expected to be clear on Wednesday, with a high of 3 C and Flood said that could be an opportunity for those concerned about poor weather.

“If there are concerns that people are experiencing or they’re worried about the weather impacting their ability to get out on the 27th, I would encourage people to get out and (vote) now,” Flood said.

People can cast an early ballot Wednesday by visiting their local election office until 6 p.m. You can find the address for your local election office, along with your polling station for Election Day, on the Elections Ontario website.

Flood said Elections Ontario typically hires 55,000 people across the province for an election so they’re equipped to deal with anything.

“So our staff across the province will be working to make sure that the polling stations are accessible,” Flood said.

If weather is an issue on Election Day, he said, polling hours could be extended if warranted.

“We’re prepared for all those types of situations, and should situations arise like that, we’ll take appropriate steps to communicate that to the public,” he said.

He noted that while Elections Ontario is “working closely” with Canada Post to ensure most voter information cards arrive ahead of Election Day, people can still vote without one by bringing along one piece of ID showing both your name and home address.

Could weather affect voter turnout?

Aside from the question of whether wintry conditions could hamper voting physically, it’s also unclear whether some voters might be discouraged from coming out in the cold.

CTV News Political Analyst Scott Reid points out that voter turnout stood at just 43.5 per cent in the 2022 election – a historic low.

“So what’s the likelihood that in the middle of a cold and snowy winter, that number is going to rise,” he said. “Even with the animating issue of Trump’s belligerence, I don’t see a lot of energy associated with this election.”

He said there’s “every reason to expect” that this election could see historically low turnout, noting that polling has changed little since the start of the election and in the past few weeks voters have been distracted by the Trump tariff threats, a massive snowstorm and federal politics.

“And now you’ll be asked to crawl out of your hovels in goodness knows what (weather),” he said.

That said, there’s a chance that voters may turn out despite the distractions and poor weather.

“You never say never,” Reid said.

Professor Emeritus John Shields in the Department of Politics & Public Administration at Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU) says there will be voters who will come out to the polls no matter what, but weather could discourage those who don’t feel strongly one way or the other.

“It’s a bit of a trek trying to get through some of those sidewalks. What that means is that voters who are highly motivated are going to get to the polls,” Shields said. “Those who are not so motivated may give it a pass, especially if they don’t really have strong opinions on the leaders.”

Polls will be open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Thursday, February 27.