Ford’s lead narrows as Liberals gain in Toronto, NDP rises in Hamilton-Niagara: Nanos survey

Latest survey shows Ford lead narrowing as Liberals gain in Toronto, NDP up in Hamilton-Niagara

With just five days to go until election day, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives continue to lead but their advantage has shrunk as the Liberals gain ground in Toronto and the NDP rises in the Hamilton-Niagara region, a new survey by CTV News' official pollster Nanos Research suggests.

The survey of 918 adults, released Saturday, found that the PCs have the support of 42.6 per cent of decided voters across Ontario, followed by the Liberals at 30.5 per cent, the NDP at 18.6 per cent, and the Greens at 6.2 per cent.

About 11 per cent of voters remain undecided.

“We’re in the home stretch and there’s still about one out of every 10 Ontarians that haven’t made a final vote decision. They’ll probably wait until the very last minute and see how everyone performs,” chief data scientist and founder Nik Nanos said during a Saturday afternoon interview with CP24.

The Progressive Conservatives have noticeably dipped in support compared to the last Nanos tracking, which had them at 45.2 per cent among decided voters. Support for the Liberals was mostly unchanged (down 0.8 points from one day prior).

The NDP, meanwhile, have made the most significant gains, increasing from 16.8 per cent to 18.6 per cent, while the Greens also saw an uptick from 5.1 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

“Ford PCs continue to lead but gap narrows to 12 percentage points between them and the Liberals. Liberals ahead in Toronto, Progressive Conservatives out front in the rest of the province. NDP support is up in the Hamilton-Niagara region, now tied with the Liberals but both still trail the PCs,” Nanos said in a news release.

He added that in the campaign’s final stretch it appears that a lot of the parties are focusing on areas where they must pick up seats.

“It’s going to be a fight to the finish, but that said, Doug Ford, the Progressive Conservatives, still have a 12-point advantage. They’re really going to have to mess up in order to lose the election,” Nanos told CP24.

PCs losing ground in the GTA

Nanos Research has been conducting nightly tracking for CTV News throughout the Ontario election campaign.

The latest survey suggests that support for the Tories among decided voters has dipped to its lowest level throughout the campaign, as measured by Nanos Research.

However, it should be pointed out that the PC polling numbers have been relatively consistent, hovering between a range of 42.6 per cent and 46.4 per cent among decided voters.

Their previous low was 43.8 per cent in the survey released on Feb. 10.

The latest survey suggests the PCs are losing support in the GTA, where they previously had the backing of 53.2 per cent of decided voters but now sit at 46.9 per cent.

When it comes to the City of Toronto, the Liberals continue to strengthen their position, leading with 42.6 per cent of decided voters. The Tories are in second at 36.6 per cent in Toronto while the NDP are third (14.4 per cent) and the Greens are at 3.8 per cent.

Nanos said he expects to see a higher voter turnout on Thursday if Ford’s lead drops to below double digits, but if it’s a cold, snowy day and the lead holds, he said voter turnout will likely be less, adding that lower voter turnout usually helps incumbent politicians.

“When the voter turnout goes up, that means that Ontarians want to change in government and want to punish someone. So it’s going to be really interesting to see what happens in the next few days,” he said.

Ford’s support among men also slipping

Male voters have long been a key pillar of Ford’s support, but that, could be sliding.

The PCs previously held 55.2 per cent of male voter support in the last Nanos survey and now sit at 51.9 per cent. The Liberals hold 25.3 per cent, the NDP are at 15.3 per cent, and the Greens 4.7 per cent.

Among female voters, the Liberals are ahead with 35.6 per cent, followed by the PCs at 33.2 per cent, the NDP at 22.0 per cent, and the Greens at 7.6 per cent.

Ford still preferred as premier, but support declines

Province-wide, Ford remains the preferred choice for premier but has seen his support decline. Previous nightly tracking by Nanos had him at 41.4 per cent, but he now sits at 38.6 per cent. Crombie is at 25.9 per cent, down slightly from 26.8 per cent. Meanwhile, Stiles has gained ground, now at 16.8 per cent, up from 14.2 per cent. Schreiner also saw a modest increase, rising to 7.2 per cent from 6.6 per cent.

The survey was conducted using a three-day rolling sample of 300 interviews conducted each day and holds a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

With files from CP24’s Joanna Lavoie