Ontario PCs to hold ‘super caucus’ meeting Saturday as early election speculation grows

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, wearing a 'Canada Is Not For Sale' hat, arrives for a first ministers meeting in Ottawa on Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

Another clue that Premier Doug Ford might call an early election has surfaced in the form of an invitation to Ontario Progressive Conservatives to attend a “super caucus’ meeting this weekend.

“As we face the unprecedented threat posed by a potential trade war with the United States, it is more important than ever to be prepared for an election to secure a strong mandate from voters,” the invitation obtained by CP24 read.

• Here’s what an early Ontario election could look like

Candidates and campaign managers are invited to attend the Saturday event near Pearson International Airport, to discuss polling and strategy, with remarks from pollster Nick Kouvalis and the premier himself.

While it’s unclear if Ford will call voters to the polls ahead of the next scheduled date of June 2026, he told reporters Wednesday to “stay tuned” when asked it he would drop the writ as early as next week, as has been reported by several media outlets.

“We need a mandate from the people. We need a mandate to protect -- and possibly spend billions of dollars -- to protect people’s jobs, to protect businesses and to protect communities,” he said.

Ford has previously hinted at possibly calling an early election in the face of President Donald Trump’s threatened 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, which could come into effect as early as Feb. 1.

Following Trump’s inaugural address Monday, Ford said he would need a “clear mandate” to navigate the tax, which he said could cost Ontario 500,00 jobs and potentially require tens of billions of dollars in reactive stimulus spending.

Ontario’s opposition parties have said they would support Ford’s majority government if the tariffs come to pass. However, the premier has insisted that he requires the people’s support if the province needs to spend cash to soften the blow.

“There’s only group that’s going to give you the mandate, and that’s the people,” he said.

In Ontario, elections must be called on a Wednesday, meaning that if Ford calls Ontarians to the polls next week, voters would likely head to the polls 28 days later on Feb. 27.

PCs lead Liberals by 24 points: poll

News of the caucus meeting comes amid the release of a new poll by Leger which shows that Ford’s PCs are leading Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals by 24 points among decided and leaning voters.

The survey, commissioned by Postmedia and released on Wednesday, shows that if a vote were held today, Ford’s party would have the support of 46 per cent of decided and leaning voters. Support for the Liberals stood at 22 per cent while support for the Ontario NDP, the official opposition, was 19 per cent.

About 12 per cent of respondents said that they were undecided.

The poll painted a slightly different picture than a Liaison Strategies survey released earlier this week which showed that the Tories had a nine-point lead over the Liberals among decided and leaning voters (41 per cent versus 32 per cent). The NDP were third with the support of 19 per cent of decided and leaning voters.

That poll suggested that about 26 per cent of respondents were still undecided.

The latest polling from Leger shows that the cost of living is the most important issue among the 1,007 voters surveyed. Last week, the province confirmed that it had started sending out $200 cheques to taxpayers to deal with day-to-day expenses. The provincial government has rebuffed accusations from across the aisle that the rebates are a “gimmick” to bribe voters.

The Leger survey, conducted from Jan. 17 to Jan. 19, was based on an online panel with 1,007 adult Ontarians.

It has a comparative margin of error of plus or minus 3.08 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The Liaison poll surveyed close to 1,200 Ontario voters between Jan. 15 and 16. The margin of error for that poll was plus or minus 2.83 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

With files from Beatrice Vaisman