Close to 3 in 10 Ontarians plan to vote strategically in upcoming election, new Nanos survey finds

Nightly Ontario election tracking results released by Nanos Research on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.

Nearly three in 10 Ontario voters plan to vote strategically, according to a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research.

Nanos says 920 Ontarians were interviewed between Feb. 20 and Feb. 22 as part of the survey.

Respondents were asked about their primary motivation in determining who to vote for.

The survey found that nearly 17 per cent of respondents would vote against a party they did not want to win, while another 11 per cent said they would vote against a leader they do not like.

About 40 per cent said they would vote for a party they like and 29 per cent said they would vote for a leader they like.

About four per cent of respondents were unsure.

“Strategic voters are more likely to be Liberals, New Democrats or Greens compared to PCs,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

In battleground Toronto, 39.8 per cent of respondents said they would vote for a party they like, 21.9 per cent said they would vote for a leader they like, 20.7 per cent said they would vote against a party they do not want to win, and 15.2 per cent said they would vote against a leader they do not like.

Nanos also found that while 59 per cent of respondents surveyed between Feb. 20 and Feb. 22 said they had made up their mind about who to vote for before the campaign even started, a “significant” number, 29 per cent , say they are leaning toward a party but may change their mind.

“PCs supporters were the most decided going in and compared to the supporters of other parties are the comparatively least like to change their mind,” Nik Nanos said.

New nightly tracking released by Nanos on Wednesday shows the PCs with a 14-point advantage over the second-place Liberals with just one day to go until the election. More than 1,200 Ontario voters were surveyed between Feb. 23 and Feb. 25 and 45.7 per cent of decided respondents said they would choose Doug Ford’s PC Party to form government, compared to 31.9 per cent who said they would vote Liberal. About 16.5 per cent of voters said they would support the NDP on Election Day and 3.8 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party.

Support for the Tories has been stable throughout the campaign, with Nanos nightly tracking measuring support for the party among decided voters between 42.6 per cent and 46.4 per cent.

Among decided and undecided voters in the latest survey, 41 per cent said they would vote for Ford’s PCs, 28.7 per cent said they would vote Liberal, 14.8 per cent said they would support the NDP, 3.5 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party. 1.8 per cent selected “other,” and 10.3 per cent said they were still unsure.

“Of note, Liberal support is moving up while NDP support is moving down in the latest polling,” Nik Nanos said in a written statement. “PCs lead in four of five regions with Toronto as a toss-up in the tracking.”

Doug Ford continues to be the top pick for preferred premier, with 40.8 per cent of respondents selecting the PC leader, compared to 27 per cent who said they would choose Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie. About 13.8 per cent said they believe NDP Leader Marit Stiles would be the best choice for premier, while 5.8 per cent said Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner was their top choice.

The nightly tracking numbers released Wednesday have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.