Canada likely to lose measles elimination status as outbreak continues: expert

As CTV's health reporter Pauline Chan explains, it could result in Canada losing its status as a country in which measles has been eliminated.

Canada is at risk of losing its measles elimination status as an outbreak that started in New Brunswick last year continues to grow.

Measles has been considered eliminated in Canada since 1998, and the country saw an average of 91 cases annually before October 2024, when the outbreak began. The designation means that, within a certain geographical region, there has been no sustained measles transmission over 12 consecutive months.

Since then, of the 4,394 measles infections nationwide, Health Canada data shows that most individuals were exposed to the virus domestically (94 per cent) and were not vaccinated (88 per cent).

So far, measles cases have been reported in every province and territory except Nunavut, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador. According to most recent figures, Ontario has reported 2,353 cases as of July 29 and Alberta has reported 1,691 as of Aug. 5. One death was reported in Ontario in an infant who was born prematurely and had a congenital case of measles, as well as other underlying medical conditions.

An April public health risk assessment conducted by Health Canada suggests that if the current chain of transmissions continues beyond October 2025, Canada could lose its elimination status. However, according to Janna Shapiro, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Toronto’s Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, losing that designation looks likely.

“I think there’s a pretty good chance, the way things are going now, that we will lose our measles elimination status,” she told CTV News Toronto in an interview.

“We really had our bulk of our cases in March or April”, she said of Ontario, “but that’s not yet the case in Alberta. I think there’s still quite a few new cases being reported on a weekly basis ”

“Whenever you see any type of infectious disease outbreak, there’s an element of chance that the right people who are susceptible to being infected, happen to come in contact with that virus at a time that will allow it, or in a location or in a context, that allow it to spread,” she said. “So yes, it is kind of freaky but that’s how all infectious disease outbreaks start.”

Michelle Knorr, a teacher from Saskatchewan, says her recent measles hospitalization has made her personally and professionally fearful of Canada’s climbing cases.

“I think about the average 32 kids in a classroom in city schools. It would be a really dangerous thing to have a classroom of kids taken out by the measles. And most will manage it, most will be able to be resilient and overcome it, but some may not,” she warns.

According to the Pan American Health Organization, Canada currently has more cases than any other country in the Americas.