Carney’s Liberals lead Poilievre’s Conservatives as MPs kick off summer break

The Peace Tower of Parliament Hill is shown in Ottawa on Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

The federal Liberals are leading the Conservatives by 13 points nationally, with MPs back in their constituencies for the House of Commons’ summer hiatus, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre gearing up for an August byelection.

According to the most recent ballot tracking data from Nanos Research, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are at 45.2 per cent, Poilievre’s Conservatives at 30.8 per cent, and the NDP, with interim leader Don Davies at the helm, is at 12.1 per cent.

The Liberals’ have steadily widened their lead over the second-place Conservatives in the two months since the federal election, which followed a neck-and-neck campaign between the two parties. Despite their election loss, the Conservatives picked up two dozen new seats and came within three per cent of the Liberals for the popular vote.

“The last federal election, even with the Conservatives not winning the greatest number of seats, had CPC support in the category of the (former prime minister Stephen) Harper majority, and the (former prime minister Brian) Mulroney and (former prime minister John) Diefenbaker wins — historically strong,” said Nanos Research founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos in his weekly polling analysis newsletter.

Nanos added that it’s the Conservatives’ overall trendline since this time last year — when they were “in the driver’s seat” with a double-digit lead in the polls — that doesn’t bode well for the party, now lagging behind the Liberals.

“Part of the election coalition for the Poilievre Conservatives included blue-collar, working voters. Looks like some are returning to the New Democrats,” Nanos said.

Poilievre, meanwhile, is trailing behind Carney by an even greater margin when it comes to the preferred prime minister question.

According to the latest numbers from Nanos Research, Carney is at 52.1 per cent, and Poilievre at 23.2 per cent.

The Conservative leader has seen a 10-point drop on the preferred prime minister question since the week before the election, during which he lost his seat in the House of Commons.

“This speaks to the importance for the Conservatives to get their leader back in the House of Commons,” Nanos said. “Part of the current Carney advantage results from the disarray of the opposition.”

Poilievre will get the chance to try regaining a seat this August, after Carney announced Monday he’s called a byelection for Aug. 18.

After more than 20 years representing the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, Poilievre will be running to replace now-former MP Damien Kurek in the rural Alberta riding of Battle River—Crowfoot.

Kurek announced his intention to resign just days after the election, in the hopes of paving the way for Poilievre to replace him. He officially stepped down on June 17, the first day he was allowed to do so according to parliamentary procedure.

METHODOLOGY: The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

With files from CTV News’ Phil Hahn