CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The close race between the Liberals and Conservatives continues on Day 19 of the 36-day federal election campaign with a five-point difference separating the two main parties.
Meanwhile, the once 20-point advantage Liberal Leader Mark Carney enjoyed over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre less than a week ago—on the question of whom Canadians think would be the best prime minster—continues to incrementally shrink.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 9 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 38 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party remains in single digits at nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent).
Regional support
The Conservatives have seen gains this week in seat-rich Ontario, where they sit at 41 per cent versus the Liberals at 48 per cent.
The Liberals continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 55 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 34 per cent for the Liberals.
The Liberals are leading in Quebec but are down another few points at 40 per cent, compared with the Conservatives who have gone up to 24 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, are in second place at 27 per cent in the province.
For the NDP, British Columbia remains its best region where support for the party is at 16 per cent. Still, the Liberals are far ahead there at 41 per cent, with the Conservatives in second at 36 per cent.
The Liberals continue to enjoy a comfortable lead in the Atlantic region, meanwhile, with 52 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 40 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at 8 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney still has a comfortable lead but has lost three points over the three-day rolling average, with 47 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who has risen a few points and now sits at 35 per cent.
“Poilievre has been incrementally closing the leadership gap over the last few nights,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. “A week ago the Carney advantage on the preferred PM tracking was more than 20 percentage points. As of last night, it was 12 points.”
By gender
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Forty-eight per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals; compared with 31 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is down a point to 38 per cent, compared with 47 per cent for the Conservatives (up a point).
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 7 to 9, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
