Political analyst expecting imminent return of Parliament after Liberal leadership election

For more on Sunday’s vote, we brought in Scott Reid. He is a Political Analyst for CTV News.

The Liberals will choose a new leader Sunday who will become Canada’s next prime minister, and CTV Morning Live is looking at how that transition will take place.

The election will take place at the Rogers Centre in Ottawa. The new leader will be announced roughly around dinner time. The new prime minister will be sworn in by Canada’s Governor General, Mary Simon, at Rideau Hall.

Scott Reid, political analyst for CTV News, says analysts will be watching for whether Mark Carney will win and how quickly.

“I’ll just end the suspense now. He’s almost certainly going to win on the first ballot. And even if he doesn’t, it’s like a tabulation of a recorded vote,” he said.

Reid is also expecting a significant number of votes for former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. He also mentions Government House leader Karina Gould, who’s generated “energy and enthusiasm.”

Reid says that he’ll also be keeping an eye on what the winner will have to say when taking the stage about the trade war between Canada and the United States.

What do you predict the new leader will do after being elected?

Reid is expecting an imminent return of Parliament after the election of the new Liberal leader, citing a political demand for change and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war. He expects a transition on March 24.

“I think that maybe from Sunday to Sunday you’re going to see Mr. Carney installed as prime minister, so a very quick transition by historical standards,” he said. “Then he’ll form a cabinet.”

CTV’s political analyst adds that he’ll also pay close attention to who Carney will appoint as finance minister and what kind of cabinet he’ll pick. He’s also curious to see whether we’ll have a legacy cabinet or a shuffle of people.

“What happens with Chrystia Freeland? Does she sit in cabinet? If so, in what position? All those kinds of real insider political things, but the big question then is how quickly do we go to an election?” Reid said.

Reid notes that if Carney becomes the next prime minister, he’d call for a quick election for three reasons, including whether he’ll have a seat, the need for strong leadership to deal with the trade war and most importantly, pure politics.

“So, first there is this question,” he said. “He’s never actually run for elected office, and boom, he gets to start on the first day at the very top. So, you know there’s the question of (whether) he’ll want to seek a mandate.”

Reid notes that Carney has gained momentum in the polls, as he brings the Liberal Party back to a neck and neck fight with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Carney’s background in the financial industry, as former Bank of Canada governor, also puts him at a competitive advantage, Reid says.

“He’s going to want to bank the momentum, get a campaign underway, try to do his best to say this is my one and best shot,” Reid said.

Sunday’s elections will mark the end of Justin Trudeau’s decade as prime minister. He will step down officially in the days to come. When Trudeau announced his plans to resign in January, he prorogued Parliament until March 24.

The new leader inherits a minority government with no supply-and-confidence deal and an opposition that’s eager to boot the Liberals out. The Conservatives want the Liberals to reopen Parliament to debate the response to Trump’s tariffs.

More information about what happens next is available here.

With files from The Canadian Press