Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017.
With the campaign officially started, Canadians are about to experience something more akin to what we see south of the border: a two-party election.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not taking anything away from the NDP, the Green Party, the Bloc, or their supporters.
They work hard, have their own base and promote their vision and ideals. But in a time of existential crisis for Canada as a whole, they’re an afterthought.
Donald Trump’s very real threat to Canada’s economy and sovereignty hovered over Sunday’s election launch. Who has the experience and expertise to deal with that threat? That’s the only question on Canadians' minds right now, it’s what’s called the “ballot question.”
That’s why this is shaping up to be a race between the ruling Liberals and the opposition Conservatives, with little room to spare for the others. If you can’t seriously say you’re going to form a government that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it.
NDP and Bloc have a lot to fear
In fact, both the NDP and the Bloc have a lot to fear from this electoral joust. They could wind up being squeezed to the sidelines as Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre duke it out.
The Greens have decided, based on nothing, that an unelected co-leader named Jonathan Pedneault is going to take part in the leaders’ debates. In the past, Elizabeth May’s own chances of being in the debates have been shaky, so good luck convincing anyone else that Pedneault is somehow going to be on the stage.
Recent polling puts the NDP in single-digit territory. If that were to be maintained until election day, they could lose official party status, which requires 12 seats in the House.
Jagmeet Singh is a valiant warrior but he’s in the battle of his political life. It’s very hard for him to convince progressive voters that the Liberals are elitist bums when he’s been in the sack with them for the last few years.
When I was NDP leader I used to bristle when I heard Liberals warn about not “splitting the vote.” It seemed so entitled, as if “the” vote belonged to them.
Will ‘Dippers’ help Liberals?
But now I’m hearing even from die hard, lifelong “Dippers” (as we jokingly called ourselves), that the risks to Canada are so great that in this election, they’re going to be helping and voting for the Liberals.
Those twin risks are seen as being Trump and Poilievre. When Poilievre was 25 points ahead in the polls against Justin Trudeau, it was logical for Singh to hope that progressives would stay loyal and indeed move over to the NDP. That’s what Jack Layton had convinced many to do against Michael Ignatieff when it was clear the Liberals were going to get clobbered. Now that Carney has every chance of beating Poilievre, however, that is a vain hope. NPDers and Greens who’ve spoken to me say that they are now ready to do everything they can to block that threat to Canada’s existence by getting Carney elected.
Most Canadians outside of Quebec don’t follow the travails of the Bloc Québécois a great deal but there’s something happening in La Belle Province that should be of interest to all voters.
Support for separatism in freefall
The Bloc is experiencing a massive drop in the polls and it’s almost all to the benefit of Carney’s Liberals.
The Bloc tries to say that Carney’s less-than-perfect French is a sign that the Liberals don’t care about Quebec! It ain’t working. Their campaign posters blast out messages about “choosing” French (get the hint!) but many Quebec voters are turning to Carney because they want someone with the experience to handle the economy…and Trump!
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet even lamely told Le Devoir newspaper he’d be putting sovereignty on hold for a year. That’s generous of him but no one gives a hoot. Like all Canadians, they are worried about their jobs, their future and their security. Support for separatism is in freefall as a result.
Poilievre’s campaign launch was impeccable. Accompanied by his wife and their kids, he was human, solid and articulate. He chose to avoid the usual back and forth, switching between English and French in an important speech. He delivered his full French remarks first, and believe me, that was no accident. His French is very good and he knows that Carney’s remains a bit rusty after his stint in Britain. Poilievre wanted his French to be on full display and it worked.
He soon scooted off to Toronto and was in a good-sized crowd of supporters. If recent polling has given Poilievre the jitters, he isn’t showing it. Poilievre knows that Canadian elections are won in the Greater Toronto Area and will be spending lots of time there.
Poilievre’s challenges
That ability to change, to adapt, is one of Poilievre’s challenges. His take no prisoners approach to opponents and journalists worked when Trudeau was the adversary. It swept Poilievre ahead in the polls. He seemed to believe that that hard-edged approach was what would keep him there despite the election of Trump, the departure of Trudeau and the arrival of Carney. Those were monumental shifts but Poilievre didn’t seem to realize that the landscape had changed before his eyes.
On Sunday Poilievre showed that he’d finally been convinced that what he’d been doing successfully was simply no longer working in the changed context. He now understands that he has to adapt and gave the first signs that he’s trying. There were fewer personal attacks on Carney and he put more emphasis on his own vision. The question is, can it last for five weeks?
Poilievre is a hard worker. Time will tell whether his newfound willingness to change can turn things around for him and his party.
Polls are starting to show a slight lead for Carney’s Liberals across the country but overall, it’s a tight race. However those apparently close polling numbers don’t tell the whole story about how the election results could play out.
Trudeau formed governments in 2019 and in 2021 despite getting fewer votes than the Conservatives. The Liberal vote is better spread out and is more efficient at winning seats. And it’s the number of seats that decides the winner under our system.
Carney is on a roll
Many Conservative votes are concentrated in the Prairies and in rural areas where they often win by huge margins. That massive support boosts their polling numbers but their seat count doesn’t always follow. For want of a better term, many of those votes are “wasted.” Despite the huge margin of victory, it’s still just one riding. That’s how they lose elections despite getting more votes.
Carney is on a roll right now. He has provided a truly unprecedented turnaround for the Liberals since Trudeau announced his departure.
Campaigns matter, and surprises can shift the balance. One such surprise has already emerged: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s claim—broadcast on-air—that she has a direct line to Trump’s team and is working to get them to help the Conservatives by pausing tariffs during the campaign. She even detailed on Breitbart how Poilievre is ideologically aligned with Trump.
Now, Smith is scrambling to walk it back. But it’s hard to deny something that explicit. The optics of Conservative-Trump ties, along with the implications of electoral interference, are highly damaging.
This is just the beginning. More surprises will come, and in a race this tight, any one of them could tip the balance.
Welcome to a national election campaign.
