CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals have a five-point lead over the Conservatives on Day 24 of the 36-day federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 14 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 39 per cent nationally.
“Conservative support hits a 14 year election day high – but it is not enough," said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
“The interesting dynamic is that for the Conservatives, 39 per cent is not enough to win the election. One should not be surprised that the Conservatives feel buoyant and in a winning mood. The last time support for the Conservatives was at this level was in May 2011 when Stephen Harper formed a majority government.”
The New Democratic Party is at 9, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (one per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent).
“In essence, the Poilievre Conservatives are outperforming every Conservative configuration since Harper’s majority win,” said Nanos, “but faced with a consolidation of votes around the two frontrunning parties comes up short.”
Regional support
Regionally, Liberal support remains strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec and in B.C.; while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies.
In seat-rich Ontario the Liberals are at 51 per cent versus the Conservatives who are up a few points at 40 per cent. The NDP are at seven per cent.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives continue to dominate with 60 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 26 per cent for the Liberals; and in a tight race in B.C., the Conservatives have lost their lead at 39 per cent with the Liberals now at 41 per cent.
The Liberals continue their strong lead in Quebec and are at 44 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 22. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place at 24 per cent.
The Liberal lead in the Atlantic has now increased to 60 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 33 per cent for the Conservatives, who have lost several points. The NDP are far behind in the region at six per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney has a comfortable lead with a 16-point advantage, with 49 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who sits at 33 per cent.
By gender and age
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be far more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty-five per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 27 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Eleven per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 33 per cent, compared with 51 for the Conservatives. Only seven per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
Conservatives’ lead among voters under 35 is shrinking with just a one per cent advantage over Liberals in that age range, while the Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-one per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 34 for the Conservatives.
For those 35 to 54, Conservatives are at 45 per cent, versus 41 per cent for the Liberals.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 12 to 14, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
