CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals have a five-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 32 of the 36-day federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research conducted on April 20-22 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives, who are up a few points at 39 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party is at eight per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (five per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“NDP support has slid after post debate bump,” said Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. “With less than a week to election day, the race between the Liberals and the Conservatives for ballot support continues to be close and stable. However, the NDP after an initial marginal lift coming out of the debate, has slid as Canadians increasingly focus on the two front runners who are consolidating support at the expense of the non-governing parties.”
Nanos added that current ballot levels for the Conservatives and Liberals would have yielded majority governments in most federal elections.
Regional support
Regionally, Liberals are ahead in the Atlantic, Ontario, Quebec and B.C., while Conservatives remain dominant in the Prairies.
In Ontario, the Liberals’ lead went from a 13-point advantage in the last rolling sample to eight points and are at 48 per cent versus the Conservatives, who have risen several points and are at 40 per cent. The NDP, meanwhile, has fallen several points to seven per cent.
The Liberals continue their lead in Quebec and are at 42 per cent compared with the Conservatives at 25, now statistically tied with the Bloc Quebecois who are now in third place at 24 per cent.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 55 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 34 for the Liberals. The NDP is at nine per cent.
In B.C., after a tie yesterday, the Liberals have gone up slightly and are at 41 per cent versus 38 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP is at 16.
The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region remains strong at 58 per cent versus 32 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remains far behind in the region at seven per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has a 14-point advantage, with 49 per cent choosing him over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who sits at 35 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at four per cent.
By gender and age
A gender analysis of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty-one per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 31 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Nine per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent, compared with 47 for the Conservatives. Six per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 has strengthened in the past few days with 47 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 30 for the Liberals. Eleven per cent chose the NDP.
Meanwhile, the Liberals have pulled ahead among those aged 35 to 54, with Conservatives at 38 per cent versus 45 for the Liberals. Seven per cent would vote NDP.
The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-three per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 33 for the Conservatives. Six per cent in that age category chose the NDP.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 20 to 22, 2025, n=1,313, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography.
Correction
Under regional support, the Bloc Quebecois is now a point behind the Conservatives and are in third place. The article previously said the Bloc are in second.
