CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals now have a 10-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 13 of the federal election campaign, while Mark Carney has opened up a 20-point lead over Pierre Poilievre when it comes to Canadians’ preferences for prime minister.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 3 has the Liberals at 46 per cent over the Conservatives at 36 per cent.
The New Democratic Party remains at nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (5 per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“The Liberal advantage on the first tracking report was five percentage points and it is now 10 percentage points. This is in the wake of Liberal leader Mark Carney responding to the Trump ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
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Regional support
The Liberals have also increased their lead to 15 points in Ontario, with 51 per cent of those surveyed choosing them over the Conservatives, who have fallen a point since yesterday to 36 per cent.
The Liberals also continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives continue to dominate with 60 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 25 per cent for the Liberals.
Meanwhile, the Liberals have increased their lead in Quebec and sit at 54 per cent today; while the Conservatives are down three points at 17 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to who Canadians prefer to become prime minister, 51 per cent chose Carney (up one per cent) compared to 31 per cent for Poilievre (down two per cent). NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains at five per cent.
“As context the last politician to hit preferred PM numbers at these levels was Trudeau,” said Nanos. “At the beginning of this first mandate, during the political honeymoon, the proportion of Canadians who preferred him as prime minister was at or near 50 per cent.”
Gender gap
A gender breakdown of the Nanos tracking shows women are more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Fifty-one per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 28 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, 39 per cent of men said they would back the Liberals compared with 44 per cent for the Conservatives.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, March 31 April 2, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
