When it comes to keeping campaign promises, Canadians are more likely to trust Liberal leader Mark Carney than his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, according to the results of a new survey.
Commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail, the survey by Nanos Research found that 48 per cent of respondents trust Carney to keep campaign promises, compared with 27 per cent who trust Poilievre.
Undecided voters were also more likely trust Carney, with 32 per cent saying they trust the Liberal leader to keep campaign promises versus 10 per cent for Poilievre. Nearly one-third of undecided voters, or 31 per cent, trust neither.
“Overall, Liberal leader Carney has a trust advantage over Conservative leader Poilievre when it comes to keeping promises,” Nanos Research founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos said.
Trust for Carney was highest in Atlantic Canada (58 per cent) and lowest in the Prairies (32 per cent). The opposite was true for Poilievre, who saw higher trust in the Prairies (48 per cent) and the lowest trust in Atlantic Canada (15 per cent).
Committed Liberal voters were slightly more likely to trust their party’s leader to keep promises at 82 per cent, compared with 73 per cent of committed Conservatives who trust Poilievre. Women were also much more likely to trust Carney (52 per cent) over Poilievre (21 per cent).
Liberals benefit more from Canada-U.S. tensions
The Nanos Research survey also found that Canadians were more than three times more likely to say the Liberals have benefited more from tensions in the Canada-U.S. relationship. Fifty-six per cent of respondents identified the Liberals as the party that has benefited the most from friction with the Americans and U.S. President Donald Trump, compared with 16 per cent who pointed to the Conservatives. Fifteen per cent were unsure.
“Across all demographic groups and regions, Canadians believe that the current environment with tension in the Canada-U.S. relationship is more likely to benefit the Liberals,” Nanos said. “In addition to the focus as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, being Prime Minister and responding to U.S. President Trump is currently unfolding as an advantage for Liberal fortunes.”
Majority of voters already decided
Although the April 28 federal election is still weeks away, more than half of Canadians, or 55 per cent, have already made their final decision about who they will be voting for.
“Regardless of the current political environment, the election is clearly still up for grabs,” Nanos said. “Although 55 per cent of Canadians report having made a final vote decision, a significant one in five say they will make their final decision in the last 72 hours.”
At least 41 per cent of respondents are still undecided, according to the survey. They say they are either waiting for the leaders debate (11 per cent), the last weekend of the campaign (10 per cent), the release of party platforms (10 per cent) or election day itself (10 per cent) before making a final voting decision.
Committed Liberal (66 per cent) and Conservative (62 per cent) voters were more likely to have made their final decision than committed NDP (41 per cent) and Bloc Quebecois (44 per cent) voters. Older Canadians over age the age of 55 (63 per cent) were also much more likely to have already made their final decision than younger Canadians ages 18 to 34 (42 per cent).
Methodology
Nanos conducted RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random surveys of 1,239 to 1,241 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between April 1 to April 3, 2025. The margin of error for this kind of survey is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
