Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney are taking different approaches when it comes to current Canada-U.S. relations, but experts say both could prove successful in dealing with the Trump administration.
Carney and Trump had a “productive” and “constructive” phone call Friday about the ongoing trade war after the U.S. president threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on cars and light trucks not made in America.
“We’re going to end up with a very good relationship with Canada,” said Trump.
“The readout from today’s meeting certainly suggests a shift in tone, although I would maybe throw a little caution on that … nobody really knows what these reciprocal tariffs that are going to be announced … are about,” said Greg Anderson, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta.
Anderson said he believes the new tariffs will be more aimed at Mexico and that Canada could see some relief.
“Trump is in love with tariffs, he thinks tariffs can solve everything,” Anderson added.
Carney is still promising retaliatory tariffs in response to additional ones from the U.S. next week.
“It’s always good when people are talking rather than fighting, but the underlying conditions are still profoundly problematic for the bilateral relationship,” said Eric Miller, the president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group.
“Prime Minister Carney last evening talked about the need for Canada to move in a fundamentally different direction, that the United States could not be trusted as an ally and partner in the same way anymore, that undoubtedly has been noticed by the president’s team.”
By comparison, Danielle Smith has been meeting with political figures in the United States in an effort to keep tariffs off Alberta’s oil and gas industry.
“Premier Smith, as a conservative, is trying to play linkages to conservatives in the United States,” said Miller.
“What she wants to do is move on to be a constructive advocate for Alberta oil and to be seen as the conservative friend of American conservatives in Canada.”
On Thursday, Smith spoke with political commentator Ben Shapiro, a move she has been criticized for, but something Anderson said could be beneficial to Alberta.
“Unless you live in the northern-tier states, you do not think about Canada very much. So understanding where your oil and gas comes from, where your potash comes from, where maybe even some of your automobiles come from, is kind of important,” said Anderson.
“If that comes through a podcast listened to by several million Americans who are big Trump supporters and may never think about Canada otherwise … if Smith can win a few hearts and minds … that’s all to the good.”
Local politicians were also down south as mayors from Canada, the U.S. and Mexico met to discuss the impacts of tariffs on local economies.
“We are so intertwined and closely connected that the tariffs interrupting that trade will have some devastating effects on our community members,” said Alanna Hnatiw, the mayor of Sturgeon County.
“From the heartland perspective, where we look for multi-million and billion dollar investments, from foreign direct investment, any type of uncertainty as to where export market opportunities are will diminish further investment.”
For Albertans, the effects on the oil and gas industry might be top of mind, but agriculture, housing and tourism on both sides of the border are also concerns for the mayors.
More than half of the milled oats the U.S. uses in its food products come from Canada and the market uncertainty could have farmers and producers looking at other options, which could create further uncertainty, according to Hnatiw.
“The uncertainty is the kiss of death,” she added. “These sudden changes create just a brittleness in the market that we just don’t have the resiliency in front of us right now, still recovering from COVID.
Hnatiw said the American mayors were “feeling bad” about how the current trade war is playing out, not just because of the effect it is having on their constituents, but because they had a good relationship with Canadian municipalities.
“One thing I heard from one of the mayors in Mexico, he said, ‘We are all America,’ and that is the absolute truth, and so it’s really difficult when somebody tries to tear the reality apart,” Hnatiw added.
“One of the other mayors had said the most important infrastructure that we as municipal mayors build is the infrastructure of building bridges between people.”
With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski
