Josh Classen’s forecast: One last cold weekend

It will be cold for a bit longer until there's a big warm up.

It’s been one of the coldest starts to February in years and the cold spell will continue through the weekend and early next week.

I’m hesitating to call it a “deep freeze,” because we haven’t had any daytime highs below -20 C since early in the month.

It’s been COLD, but daytime highs have been above -15 C through the past eight days (and two of those were above -10 C).

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So...let’s settle on “prolonged cold spell.”

The average high for the first half of February this year is -15 C.

If you look back at the past 10 years, the average high for that timeframe is -7 C.

So, we’re way below the historical average. BUT...it’s not the coldest in the past decade, or even the second coldest.

2021 had an average high of -18 C from Feb. 1-14 and 2019 had an average high of -19.

Although today’s daytime high isn’t in yet, we’re not going to beat those numbers and 2025 will end up as the 3rd-coldest first half of February in the past decade.

Looking ahead, we ARE forecasting daytime highs below -15 C for the next few days and possibly a day or two with afternoon temperatures around -20. In fact, some of the modelling indicates highs below -20 C Sunday/Monday.

However, actual temperatures have been exceeding forecasts the past few days by a degree or two and it’s possible that continues to happen.

I’m going with highs around -16/-17 today and Saturday and then -18/-19 for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.

But...given a bit of uncertainty, I think it’s safest to just expect highs in the -15 to -20 C range through Tuesday.

Same story with morning lows - some of the modelling indicates morning temperatures in the -30s, particularly Sunday morning. While that’s possible, I think it’s more reasonable to plan for temperatures in the -25 to -30 range Sunday/Monday/Tueday mornings.

So...when will the cold spell end?

Well, the Polar Vortex (big blob of cold air) has been locked in place over the Hudson Bay region and it looks like it’ll slump “backwards” into Manitoba this weekend before finally weakening and shifting off to the SE early-to-mid next week.

At this point, it looks like we’ll be past the coldest days by Wednesday (but it’ll probably still be in the -10 to -15 range).

Thursday should bring a return to more seasonal temperatures - an afternoon high in the -2 to -5 C range.

THEN...it’s look very likely that we’ll be around or above zero for highs starting next Friday (Feb. 21) and continuing through to the end of the month.

One last cold weekend to get through. Then by next weekend...it’s going to feel like “Spring.”

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks. Slight chance of a few occasional flurries.

Wind E 10 km/h. Wind chill in the -23 to -27 range through the day

High: -17

Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a few occasional flurries.

9pm: -20

Saturday - Cloudy in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon.

Morning Low: -22

Afternoon High: -17

Sunday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -26

Afternoon High: -18

Monday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -26

Afternoon High: -19

Tuesday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -26

Afternoon High: -18

Wednesday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -23

Afternoon High: -13