Wastewater data suggests COVID-19 will return to Calgary this respiratory virus season

Calgary's wastewater shows COVID levels are high. There is worry reduced access to vaccines could see demand for beds rise.

The amount of COVID-19 detected in Calgary’s wastewater is considered high and on the rise, according to data collected by two publicly available monitors.

Since 2020 researchers began tracking public wastewater to detect covid-19 and have expanded to other viruses and pathogens as well.

“It’s a great way to see if the virus is going up. If it is, wastewater will be the first place we notice that,” said University of Calgary microbiology professor Casey Hubert.

He added that “it’s like doing a swab for a million people at once. What wastewater shows you is if the virus is going up, going down, staying stable.”

He’s also part of the wastewater research team collective that works with Alberta Health, Alberta Health Services and many municipalities in Alberta.

There’s also a national wastewater dashboard which has characterized both Calgary and Edmonton as high.

“It’s especially when a sustained trend (moves) in a certain direction -- that’s when we can be pretty confident that that’s a spread of the infection manifesting in the community,” said Hubert.

‘Barrier’

One infectious and chronic disease expert says this means COVID-19 is likely to return in a significant way for this respiratory virus season.

“It’s simply saying the virus is circulating and we can anticipate seeing cases, starting now, but absolutely rising in the coming weeks,” said University of Calgary microbiology/infectious diseases expert Craig Jenne.

Jenne and infectious disease experts are concerned that the virus will have significant spread, as the province’s immunization program is notably different this year.

Vaccines will not be made available at pharmacies or doctor’s offices.

There will be a $100 fee for most people who want a shot.

“We know that every time we add a barrier,” said Jenne, “(it) is going to drive down vaccine numbers.”

“(The province) knows that putting up these barriers and adding costs means that more people will end up sick and will end up in our hospitals which will cost us more and add more capacity issues, when they’re already experiencing capacity issues,” said Friends of Medicare executive director Chris Galloway.

Alberta Health Services responds

A statement from AHS to CTV News reads in part:

“Overcapacity and surge plans are in place at the site, corridor, and provincial levels to improve access to care when demand is high,” it said. “These plans address staffing, beds and spaces, equipment, and coordination, and include additional surge capacity if pressures exceed anticipated levels.

“Winter is always the busiest time of the year and the impact of respiratory viruses in a given year is hard to predict, but it’s worth noting that COVID-related hospital admissions this summer were the lowest since 2020, and the overall impact of COVID-19 has steadily declined since the height of the pandemic.”

A statement was also provided by Primary Care Alberta which reads in full:

“Public Health across the province have appointments available starting October 1 for those who qualify for the COVID-19 vaccine in Phase 1, with availability monitored and expanded as demand requires. Beginning mid-October, COVID-19 vaccines will be available to the general public. Appointments can be booked online, by phone through Health Link at 811. Influenza vaccines remain free and accessible to all Albertans.”

Additionally, the Ministry of Primary and Preventative Health Services sent a statement:

“The current respiratory virus season began on August 24, 2025. So far, the season has been comparable to last year, with some COVID-19 indicators slightly lower than in 2024–25.

“Wastewater levels, monitored by the province, remain low, with only minor increases in some regions—similar to patterns seen at the start of the previous respiratory virus season.”