Stuck between a united Canada and a separate Alberta: Smith facing intensifying pressure

Will Alberta remain, or seek independence? It was on minds at the UCP AGM and will likely make its way to the ballot box.

Premier Danielle Smith is facing intensifying pressure from both independence activists and federalist conservatives as Alberta’s separation debate accelerates.

It follows a contentious United Conservative Party annual general meeting and the certification of a citizens’ petition on the province’s future in Canada.

Even though it never came to the membership for a vote, the issue of whether Alberta should remain in Confederation dominated the UCP convention.

Calls for independence drew some of the loudest and most enthusiastic responses from delegates.

That contrasts with the opening session on Friday, where Smith tried reassuring members about Alberta’s place in Canada after the recent signing of a memorandum of understanding with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

“I hope people are a little more confident now that Canada works,” said Smith, prompting audible boos from the crowd.

UCP president Rob Smith said the crowd reaction reflects a broader shift inside the party.

“I would say probably more than half of our membership actively support the idea of an independent Alberta,” he said.

“Honestly, if we ended up with a Pierre Poilievre Conservative federal government, I’m not sure that would have that much of a difference in the minds of the people that are very, very pro-independence.”

The premier rejected the notion her party has become a separatist movement.

Asked directly, “Is your party now a separatist party?” Smith replied, “No!”

Still, the premier acknowledges she has a tough road ahead to convince her own base remaining in Canada can work.

“I’ve always said my job is to tell people Canada works and show them it works, and to get more people to understand we can have our own sovereign areas of jurisdiction within a united Canada,” she said.

“So, I’ve got a little more work to do.”

Political scientist Duane Bratt of Mount Royal University said Smith is attempting to play both sides.

“She keeps using the phrase ‘sovereign Alberta in the United Canada’ because that seems to appeal to both sides,” said Bratt.

“But at a certain point, she’s going to have to pick a side.”

Bratt says not taking a side on such a divisive issue is a dangerous road for a leader.

He says it’s similar to the events that brought former premier Jason Kenney’s leadership to an end.

“Jason Kenney tried to appeal to those who wanted less public health restrictions and those who wanted more public health restrictions,” said Bratt.

“(Smith) is making the same error on separatism Jason Kenney made on COVID, and I don’t know how she can keep this balancing act going. How does she appear to be a separatist to some of her party and then go to a wider swath of Albertans and say, I’m a federalist?”

The debate further intensified Monday after Elections Alberta confirmed the Forever Canadian petition has been certified.

The initiative asks MLAs to vote on the question, “Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?”

UCP Justice Minister Mickey Amery congratulated petition organizer Thomas Lukaszuk and said the cabinet would meet later in the week to decide how it will deal with the petition.

Lukaszuk said he wants all MLAs to vote on the issue so Albertans know where each stands on separation, but he expects Smith will instead send the matter to a referendum.

“Now, she has to save her political hide and give them a referendum, but she can only blame it on herself,” Lukaszuk said.

“I’m seeing a premier in trouble who will now say anything to make both sides happy, because she cannot lose the sovereigntists or the separatists, for sure, but she also cannot lose what I would call the severely normal UCP party members.”

Cameron Davies, chair of the Alberta Republican Party, says independence sentiment has grown too large inside the UCP for Smith to ignore.

Davies also says the certification of the Forever Canadian petition should trigger an immediate vote in the legislature, not a referendum, arguing Albertans deserve to know where their MLAs stand.

Davies disputes Smith’s claim the UCP is not a separatist party and says she will soon be forced to decide whether she can continue leading that membership.

“It will be up to her to decide, in rather short order, if she wants to stay leader of a party that is dominated by members with those viewpoints,” he said.

“I think they are a separatist party that is being held hostage and hindered by their leadership.

“I think if you’re the leader of a party and you don’t identify with the clear majority of what your membership is aligned with, then maybe you’re leading the wrong parade.

“She has a challenging decision in front of her to either say, ‘You know what, I want to lead that parade,’ or she needs to step aside.”