Sharply different visions heading into election, but last-minute platforms may not move needle

A week to election day, all major parties have now unveiled their full platforms. A record number of Canadians have already cast their ballots.

The federal Liberals and Conservatives are proposing sharply different visions for Canada’s future as the country heads into a contentious election.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have both framed the election as a fight over national sovereignty, economic strength and the cost of living, but their platforms diverge significantly on how to address these issues.

Both parties released detailed, costed platforms in the final stretch of the campaign, a move some analysts say is designed more for governance than voter persuasion.

“All of the parties—Liberal, NDP and now Conservatives—have basically released their platform in the final week—give or take—of the campaign,” said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.

“They are important in a broader sense. Even if they don’t move the needle in terms of polling or voting outcomes, they are a resource for people to turn to.”

Concordia University economist Moshe Lander said the timing reflects strategic political calculation more than fully fleshed-out economic calculation.

“The reason why they’re coming in late is because it’s ‘Harry Potter’ maths. It’s that it’s not properly being costed out, and they are just sticking numbers in to make things look whatever way they want it to look,” said Lander.

“I think all the parties are suffering from it, where they’re not really making sense with how they’re going to pay for everything that they’re promising or for all of the tax cuts that they’re handing out to people.”

Carney’s Liberals are promising to defend Canada against what they call “America’s unjustified trade war” through public investment in nation-building infrastructure, expanded public services and increased military spending.

Poilievre’s Conservatives are pledging sweeping tax cuts, deregulation and energy expansion to restore affordability and economic growth.

Taxes and affordability

The Conservatives propose reducing the lowest federal income tax rate from 15 per cent to 12.75 per cent, a measure projected to cost $13.7 billion annually by 2028 when fully implemented.

A partial cut would begin in 2025-26 at a cost of $1.07 billion, growing each year.

Poilievre would also repeal the carbon tax in 2026, generating $3.2 billion annually in foregone revenue; remove GST from new homes under $1.3 million at a cost of $2 billion per year; and eliminate capital gains taxes on reinvested earnings until 2026, costing $6.1 billion annually over two years.

“Conservatives are offering a lot of tax cuts, but tax cuts are not the thing that’s really harming, especially in Alberta, because we have the lowest provincial income tax, and we have no sales tax,“ said Tombe.

“So relatively speaking, if Alberta is having a cost-of-living problem, lowering taxes is not going to fix that any easier than it’s going to fix it for the rest of Canada.”

The Liberals are offering no sweeping personal tax cuts, instead promising targeted relief, including a temporary 25 per cent reduction in RRIF withdrawals for 2025, costing $676 million, and a five per cent increase in the Guaranteed Income Supplement, providing up to $652 annually to low-income seniors, at a cost of $1.76 billion by 2028.

Carney’s platform focuses instead on maintaining public programs such as dental care and child care, while strengthening food security and boosting Canadian manufacturing.

Tombe noted both parties had produced detailed platforms, but said the Liberal plan marks “a clear departure from the government’s past approach to fiscal policy.”

“(What) they’ve put out in the platform is a relatively meaningful increase in the size of the federal deficit growing this year,” said Tombe.

“We are actually in a pretty strong financial position, and so we do have the luxury of being able to increase debt if we think what we’re spending that money on is worthwhile, but it can’t continue forever.”

Housing and infrastructure

Poilievre pledges to build 2.3 million homes in five years by cutting red tape, selling federal land and reimbursing municipalities that reduce development charges.

His plan includes removing federal barriers to internal trade by Canada Day 2025 and offering up to $50,000 per home in municipal fee reimbursements.

Carney’s Liberals aim to build housing through public infrastructure investments tied to transit and child care, including $6 billion for affordable and supportive housing.

Both parties are proposing a GST break on the purchase of new homes, with the Liberals planning the elimination of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) for first-time homebuyers on homes at or under $1 million and the Conservatives planning to eliminate it on new homes under $1.3 million.

Climate and energy

The Conservatives would repeal the carbon tax, scrap federal climate regulations and fast-track energy projects, including pipelines and a national energy corridor.

Poilievre has also promised to repeal Bill C-69 and approve major energy infrastructure within six months of taking office.

Tombe said scrapping environmental regulations like C-69 “might facilitate increased investment in energy-related projects,” but he cautioned that it would come at the cost of less stringent federal climate policy—a trade-off Albertans and other Canadians would need to consider.

“There are many, including in Alberta, but especially elsewhere, that favour stringent federal environmental policy to help move the needle on greenhouse gas emissions, and so that’s a kind of a trade-off that I think voters will need to think about,” said Tombe.

“The economic gains on the one hand, which I think is certainly there, but potentially lower stringency of environmental policy. That’s where reasonable people will disagree.”

Pipelines, and oil and gas

Poilievre has made pipelines a centrepiece of his energy strategy.

He promises to restore confidence in Canada’s oil and gas sector by removing regulatory obstacles, repealing environmental assessment laws and supporting new pipelines to both coasts.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has publicly endorsed this approach, saying her government is willing to underwrite pipeline construction.

Carney’s platform offers less emphasis on new pipelines.

While the Liberals plan to invest $5 billion in trade corridors and nation-building infrastructure, including ports and northern transport routes, there are no specific promises to expand Canada’s pipeline network.

Instead, they focus on clean energy export capacity, such as hydrogen in Edmonton and transmission lines from provinces like Quebec and Manitoba.

Lander said while Albertans are focused on energy, the Conservatives face difficult questions around pipelines elsewhere.

“You saw some of the debates around, ‘Would you override Indigenous groups or provincial objections to make sure that that pipeline gets built?’ It was a very difficult question for the Conservatives to answer,” said Lander.

“Because they recognize that if they want to have any sort of success in the Prairies, they need to essentially say, ‘Yeah, we’re going to override everybody to make sure these pipelines get done’ without publicly saying it.”

The Liberals support clean energy growth, pledging to build a national electricity grid, invest in hydrogen production hubs and protect 30 per cent of Canada’s land and water by 2030.

While not opposed to oil and gas outright, Carney’s platform places stronger emphasis on electricity transmission and clean tech, with investments in projects like the Canada First TFSA Top-Up, costing $126 million annually by 2028.

Military and sovereignty

Both parties promise to increase defence spending, but differ in scope.

The Conservatives aim to meet NATO’s two per cent GDP target by 2030, building northern bases and expanding the Canadian Rangers.

The Liberals promise to exceed NATO targets before 2030, build new submarines and icebreakers, and invest in Arctic sovereignty with Indigenous partners.

They plan to overhaul defence procurement and create a new research bureau for military innovation, including a new Bureau of Research, Engineering and Advanced Leadership in Science (BOREALIS).

Immigration

The Conservatives propose reducing immigration levels to those seen under former prime minister Stephen Harper, tying them to housing and job availability.

The Liberals promise to maintain immigration targets, which were reduced prior to the election being called, saying they will focus on credential recognition and labour mobility, particularly for health-care workers.

Outcome of the election

The release of the platforms may have limited influence on the overall election outcome, though they could still matter in closely contested areas.

“At this stage, the release of platforms is probably not going to have a huge effect overall, but in close races, it might sway some voters,” said Tombe.

“The vast majority of voters have already made up their minds. The platforms are unlikely to move the needle in a big way, but they could matter in a handful of swing ridings,” said Lander.

Advance polls saw a record turnout, with 7.3 million voters casting ballots prior to the release of both parties’ costed platforms—a 25 per cent increase over the last election, representing nearly one-quarter of the electorate.

“Canadians are really concerned, and they see this as an election that can make a difference,” political scientist Lori Williams said.

“The platforms help people make an informed choice, an informed vote, and that’s really important in a democracy.”

The NDP released its platform, which it dubs “Made for People, Built for Canada,” last week.

Jagmeet Singh’s full election platform focuses on a slate of commitments meant to build up what his party says are core Canadian values of health care, family affordability, electoral reform and reconciliation.

The NDP platform would add $48 billion to the deficit over four years.

Full platforms

Full platform documents can be found here in alphabetical order:

• Conservative: https://www.conservative.ca/change/
• Liberal: https://liberal.ca/cstrong/
• NDP: https://www.ndp.ca/campaign-commitments

With files by Jacqueline Wilson