What to expect in 2026: Brokerage forecasts for S&P 500, global GDP

A television screen is displayed in the window of the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York's Times Square. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index to extend its rally in 2026, as investors pile into artificial intelligence plays and bet on reduced borrowing costs to sustain the momentum.

The benchmark index will rise nearly 12 per cent to 7,490 by end-2026, marking a fourth straight year of advances if 2025 closes higher, according to a Reuters poll.

Strategists from major investment banks expect AI momentum and Federal Reserve rate cuts to keep the bull market alive, even as they warn inflation, stretched valuations and tariff tensions could trigger corrections.

They expect global economic growth to be resilient. Global GDP should rise between 2.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent, as per estimates.

The following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:

Forecasts for stocks:

Real GDP Growth:

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

Brokerages’ 2026 forecast for S&P 500 index target https://reut.rs/3YetX2W

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Tasim Zahid)