One of the premier institutions for hurricane research in the world has released its first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The Colorado State University Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team has forecast:
- an above average number of named storms (17)
- an above average number reaching hurricane strength (nine)
- a slightly above average number becoming major hurricanes (four)
Averages for the Atlantic hurricane season from 1991 to 2020 are 14 named storms, seven of which became hurricanes, with three of those reaching major hurricane strength.
Two of the main factors cited in their forecast include:
- Warmer than average sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic. Warmer waters are the “fuel” for tropical storms and hurricanes.
- Likely neutral or La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. That is often associated with a more favourable wind environment over the Atlantic for tropical storms and hurricanes.
The institute also mentions that the nature of the African monsoon and the presence of Saharan dust will impact storm formation. Saharan dust outbreaks over the Atlantic, along with the associated dry air, work against the development of tropical storms and hurricanes.
Colorado State University has one of the longest run hurricane season research programs in the world. The program goes back to 1984 and was established by Dr. William Gray.
More information on its forecast can be found online.
Colorado State University has a scheduled update for their forecast for June 11.
The National Hurricane Center, as part of the NOAA, will issue its outlook for the season on May 15. The Canadian Hurricane Centre typically issues its outlook in conjunction with the National Hurricane Center.
